According to a report by Russia’s TASS news agency on January 1, Gazprom issued a statement on the same day saying that due to the expiration of the Russian gas transportation agreement signed with Ukraine, the transit of natural gas to Europe through Ukraine will be terminated from 8 am Moscow time on the 1st. The statement said that due to Ukraine’s repeated and clear refusal to renew the agreement, Gazprom can no longer continue to transport natural gas to Europe through Ukraine at the legal and technical level.
In December 2019, Gazprom signed an agreement with the Ukrainian Oil and Gas Company on the transportation of natural gas through Ukraine, which is valid for 5 years and expires on December 31, 2024. According to reports, Ukraine has repeatedly stated that it will not extend the agreement, which has aroused concerns from EU countries such as Hungary, Austria and Slovakia. In November 2024, after Austria was “cut off” by Gazprom, Slovakia was the only EU country that mainly received Russian natural gas through Ukraine. Hungary currently obtains Russian natural gas mainly through the Black Sea submarine pipeline “Turkish Stream” transiting through Turkey. The Ukrainian Ministry of Energy announced on social media on the 1st that at 7 a.m. on the 1st, Kyiv time, “for national security interests”, Ukraine stopped the transit transportation service of Russian natural gas. Ukraine has issued a formal notice to international partners in this regard.
Before the outbreak of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict in 2022, Russia was the largest single natural gas supplier to the European Union. Russia supplies gas to European countries through the “Nord Stream” pipeline under the Baltic Sea, the Belarus-Poland pipeline, the Ukrainian pipeline and the “Turkish Stream” pipeline. After the outbreak of the conflict, as the EU imposed sanctions on Russia and formulated a policy of “getting rid of Russian energy dependence”, coupled with the destruction of the “Nord Stream” pipeline, Russia’s gas supply to Europe dropped sharply. According to data released on the EU official website, the proportion of EU member states importing Russian pipeline natural gas has dropped from 40% in 2021 to about 8% in 2023. In terms of pipeline natural gas and liquefied natural gas (LNG), Russia accounts for less than 15% of the total EU natural gas imports.
According to Reuters, a spokesman for the Austrian Ministry of Energy said on December 31 last year that the Austrian people’s natural gas supply has been guaranteed by purchasing natural gas from Italy and Germany and having sufficient domestic stocks. The Slovak Ministry of Economy issued a statement on the same day saying that stopping the transportation of Russian natural gas through Ukraine “is not a rational decision” and will “lead to higher prices in the European market.” This move will have a negative impact on Slovakia. Despite this, Slovakia has made preparations in advance to “deal with Ukraine’s unreasonable actions” and has prepared sufficient natural gas reserves and alternative supplies for 2025. Slovak Prime Minister Fico warned on the 1st that “Europe will pay the price for this.” He said that stopping the transportation of Russian natural gas through Ukraine will “have a huge impact on all EU countries” and “will not have an impact on Russia.”
According to reports, a spokesman for the European Commission said on December 31 last year that Europe’s natural gas infrastructure is flexible enough to supply non-Russian natural gas to Central and Eastern European countries through alternative routes. Since 2022, Europe’s natural gas infrastructure has been strengthened by additional imports of LNG. The European Commission has coordinated with member states for more than a year to prepare for alternative supply options.
CNN said on January 1 that although Europe may be able to fill this gap in the short term by importing more LNG or pipeline natural gas from other channels, in the long run, the supply and cost of natural gas will still be under pressure. At the same time, some EU countries are still importing large quantities of Russian LNG, indicating that it may be difficult for the EU to completely get rid of its dependence on cheap Russian natural gas. In addition, the EU’s previous goal of stopping importing Russian fossil fuels by 2027 will also face challenges.
According to a report on the website of Ukraine’s TSN TV station on December 31 last year, the Donbass Fuel and Energy Company, Ukraine’s largest private energy company, confirmed on the same day that Ukraine had received the first batch of LNG from the United States, about 100 million cubic meters. On December 27 last year, the company received the LNG at a Greek port, which was re-gasified and transported to Ukraine.
According to a report by Russian News Agency on January 1, after the termination of the Russian-Ukrainian natural gas transit agreement, if Europe wants to obtain Russian pipeline natural gas, it may only be through the “Turkish Stream” pipeline and its extension “Balkan Stream”. The report said that the termination of the agreement may push up European natural gas prices, increase production costs in European countries, and even affect European economic development.
Reuters reported that with the termination of the Russian-Ukrainian natural gas transit agreement, “Europe’s ‘Russian natural gas era’ has come to an end.” Although the EU has made progress in finding alternatives to Russian natural gas, Europe has also “already felt the impact” and the rising cost of energy has “hit its industrial competitiveness.” This has led to a sharp economic slowdown, soaring inflation, and increased living costs for the people.
The Russian Business Consulting Daily website said on January 1 that the Ukrainian authorities’ move to terminate the agreement was a “lose-lose move” that harmed itself and the EU. European countries will be further under pressure from rising energy prices and shortages and challenges to economic growth, and Ukraine will also lose about $800 million in transit fees each year. But the United States can continue to maintain its position as the largest LNG supplier to the EU and continue to profit from it.
Post time: Jun-04-2025